Nigeria recently went through what has been labeled as the most competitive election since the end of military rule in 1999. Nigeria’s two party political system was shaken with significant competition coming from a “young” third party candidate Peter Gregory Obi, who surprised by winning the capital Abuja and the commercial powerhouse Lagos. The ruling party managed to defend itself however, with the All Progressive Party’s (APC) Bola Tinubu winning the election almost 2 million votes ahead of both opposition candidates. Tinubu, who earned some criticism with his election slogan “It’s my turn” is Yoruba and the former governor of Lagos and a co-founder of the APC. Atiku Abubakar, former vice president of the People’s Democratic party, is a Fulani and ran for the sixth time this election. While the election remained largely peaceful, there have been allegations of vote rigging with both opposition candidates calling for a recount.
Nigeria is a very diverse country with roughly 250 ethnic groups and a relatively even split between Muslims and Christians, with the former predominantly in the North and the latter in the South. Historically, presidential elections have followed a strict ethno-religious balancing act with an unofficial rotation of candidates from different backgrounds. The rapid rise of Mr. Obi was in this sense relatively significant as he appealed to Nigerians beyond these factors. Another peculiarity of the Nigerian electoral system is that a candidate does not just need to win the largest number of votes, but also at least 25% of votes in two-thirds of Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.
This election came with high expectations as Nigeria is currently undergoing a series of crises, which the government has been unable to tackle. After eight underwhelming years of Muhammadu Buhari, Nigerians are hoping for a leader to deal with the country’s multiplicity of domestic and international crises particularly in the security realm. One of Buhari’s big promises included defeating Boko Haram. While Boko Haram has been weakened, it still operates but has mostly been superseded by other groups such as the Islamic State – West Africa Province. Another issue has been the resurgence of the, until recently, latent Igbo ethnic separatism. The origins of this conflict lie in the late 1960s when the Biafran war led to the deaths of millions of civilians. While the latter two are more regional, the country also faces nationwide problems. This includes the very violent Herder-Farmer conflict between sedentary Farmers and mostly Fulani nomadic herders. Another recent issue has been an extreme increase in the number of kidnappings for ransom as the economic situation in the country has deteriorated.
This high level of insecurity can be brought back to a multiplicity of different economic factors including dismal economic growth, high unemployment, endemic corruption, and issues related to climate change (which has particularly driven the Herder-Farmer conflict). Poverty is also widespread with 63% of Nigerians in multidimensional poverty, albeit with significant regional variations. Inflation is also running high and, despite the country’s oil wealth, public finances are in a dire state. Foreign currency is in short supply as the Central Bank maintains multiple artificial rates, which have hobbled manufacturers from importing vital inputs. Wasteful subsidies also do not help, for example, 2.2% of GDP were spent in 2022 to subsidize petrol. Finally, infrastructure and services are also in a dire state with running blackouts making production difficult and half of Nigerians not having access to electricity at all. Nigeria has one of the lowest rates of tax collection in the world, which is somewhat understandable given what the government has to show for the taxes it does collect.
A recent high profile case of economic mismanagement was the Central Bank’s introduction of new banknotes with a very short deadline before the old ones were invalidated, which led to major chaos.
The state has found it difficult to target these different crises. Nigeria is in a unique situation, where despite its federal design, the states have very little control over police resources and there is an oversupply of paramilitary organizations with competing mandates that do not cooperate. Devolving more policing powers to the states would be a good start to allow for a better response to local problems by local stakeholders. Ultimately, however a more holistic human security approach will have to be taken to the multifaceted security problems facing the country, one that cannot be solved by over-securitization. Tinubu has promised more budget to the military as a means of combating insecurity in the North, with little to show where this money will come from or how exactly this will solve this multifaceted issue.
Nigeria has a lot of potential to play a leading role. However, its current domestic problems severely harm it as a regional and Africa-wide actor. Domestic considerations were most important under Buhari and continued to dominate the agenda in the current elections. While attention has been paid to foreign policy, all candidates besides Obi did not go into much detail about how this would play out in practice. A focus on foreign policy would be necessary because many of Nigeria’s current domestic problems have an international component. The insecurity in the Sahel countries for example drives insecurity in Nigeria as a result of the porous borders in the region. A coordinated response overseen by a West African regional leader would go long ways towards beginning to solve this crisis.
In conclusion, the new president has a very difficult tenure ahead of him with a plethora of crises that all fuel each other. Unfortunately, little has been said so far exactly how these crises will be addressed.
The Afropolitan 